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Discover more about banking with usEquities soared to record highs as the much-anticipated CPI data came in softer than expected. The S&P 500 ended higher for a third straight day (+0.85%), closing above the 5,400 level for the first time in its history. The FOMC voted to keep rates steady at the conclusion of their meeting, and projections now call for one cut for 2024, versus three back in March, and two by the street. Core CPI rose less than forecasts at 0.2% versus 0.3% MoM, and 3.4% YoY (the lowest level since April 2021). The inflation data was welcomed by the Fed with the narrative switching from ‘lack of further progress’ to ‘modest incremental progress’, building confidence in the trajectory of inflation but not enough to warrant rate cuts at this time. Fed officials also now forecast that inflation will end the year higher than initially forecasted, PCE expectations for 2024 is now 2.6% vs 2.4% previously. Powell explained this as tougher YoY comps and also conservatism baked into projections on pace of disinflation. 10-year treasury yields declined nine basis points to 4.3%; the dollar retreated against all its developed-world counterparts
Key takeaways from the press conference include the following: Economic activity shows consumer spending decelerating but remains solid, while equipment spending is on the rise. Q1 GDP weakness was primarily due to inventory adjustments, government spending, and net exports. Q1 private domestic purchases demonstrated resilience with a 2.8% growth. GDP growth expectations for 2024 (+2.1%) and for 2025 and 2026 (+2.0%) remain unchanged. Labor market conditions resemble those before the pandemic, being relatively tight but not overheated. The labor market is slowing but remains strong, with an improved supply/demand balance. Unemployment is expected to be 4% in 2024, rising to 4.2% in 2025 (up from the previous forecast of 4.1%). Nominal wage growth is easing due to better supply conditions
Tesla and Nvidia both gained over 3% on Wednesday, pushing the S&P 500 above the 5,400 mark. Oracle also fueled gains by blowout earnings, closing 13% higher after reporting better than expected bookings and partnership deal announcements with tech rivals. The results were also driven by enormous demand for training AI large language models in the Oracle Cloud. Apple gained 8% this week, overtaking Nvidia and now second largest globally. Today morning, Asian stocks rallied following their US peers except Japan’s TOPIX which dropped as financial shares declined on lower long-term bond yields. Chinese EV makers stocks gained as European Union’s preliminary tariff announcement increases were in line with market expectations. The BOJ starts its two-day policy meeting with a decision due on Friday
Remaining key events and data this week include US PPI, initial jobless claims, Tesla annual meeting, BOJ monetary policy decision, US university of Michigan consumer sentiment and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee to speak on Friday
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