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Investing in the Age of Magic Money
The pandemic has lifted many taboos on public deficits and liquidity injections, starting a new era for investments “The Age of Magic Money”.
Against all odds, 2020 so far has been a great year for investments. The world is still struggling with the virus and its consequences, but markets have been boosted by the massive policy response and the recent vaccine breakthrough. Against a backdrop combing recovery with low interest rates, we are constructive for 2021 but also selective.
The one thing we always follow is to encourage our clients to diversify
The tactical playbook may have changed, from the “buy the dip” of last year to something more of a “sell on strength”
Last week confirmed the start of a booming growth episode, as well as patience from the Fed
The first quarter ended with positive economic data, confirming a build in growth momentum
Central Banks around the world have different views and responses to inflation
President Biden’s stimulus plan got final approval with individual payments already on their way
Global PMIs and a spectacular US job reports indicate a stronger than expected activity
Rising growth and inflation forecasts pushed global yields brutally higher last week.
Daily global new infections are clearly decelerating
Markets were supported by lack of inflationary pressures and unabated stimulus
Last week was very positive for risk assets in a clear “risk-on” pattern
Global stocks had their worst week since October as retail traders attacked hedge funds’ short positions
President Trump left the White House with ultra-low ratings but stock markets at record highs
President-elect Biden announced $1.9tn fiscal stimulus, and the Fed confirmed it won’t reduce support soon
Last week was eventful with a Democratic sweep and overall disappointing economic data
Daily CIO Updates
One headline last week illustrates the current situation: the usually pessimistic IMF revised up its world economic outlook for the third time.
Another flat day for global equities, however maintaining the record highs for many markets.
Major global equity indices were largely unchanged yesterday, except for European equities which gained 0.7%.
Global equities were up a percent yesterday with the S&P 500 extending gains into a third session with European equities up too.
A strong start for quarter two for markets last week across regions and sectors after a buoyant Q1.
It has been a good quarter and a good week for equity markets, though beset with severe daily ups and downs.
US stocks closed at all-time highs led by Technology and Consumer Discretionaries on the day Joe Biden disclosed his infrastructure plan and the first quarter of the year came to an end.
Here we go again. The unwinding of excessive leverage taken by a large family office, Archegos Capital Management, reverberated across markets raising uncertainty.
Asian stocks are keeping steady this morning, though US equity futures are dipping as investors weigh possible knock-on effects from a wave of unprecedentedly large block trades.s
Risk appetite returned to markets following dovish Fedspeak and Biden’s announcement of aggressive vaccine roll-outs.
Global markets are in a constant adjustment between two opposite forces: the short-term trajectory of the recovery is uncertain, with a resurgence in infections, while the medium-term recovery reignites fears on inflation and rates.
Tuesday was a bad day for global markets, following data showing an unexpected increase in the number of new cases globally.
From a campaign idea to a project: the Biden administration has confirmed preparing a second economic plan, targeting infrastructure, carbon emissions and inequalities, with an astonishing tentative amount of $3 trillion.
Last week was volatile and overall negative for most asset classes, after an update on policies from central banks failed to reverse the rise in bond yields.
Central Banks took center stage last week, with the US Federal Reserve holding their monthly committee on Wednesday.
The so much awaited big Fed day ended with big market moves, following the conclusion of the FOMC meeting where chair Powell basically reiterated the Average Inflation Targeting approach.
Stocks in Asia are showing no clear direction this morning, yesterday were mixed in the United States and put in sub-1% gains in Europe.
Asian stocks are in the green this morning, following the positive session in the United States, where shares reached new all-time highs on optimism about the economic recovery.
In spite of US long-dated yields being at the highs of the year, markets are having a positive start to the week, with US futures and equities in Japan, South Korea and Australia advancing.
Global equities ended the week on a very strong note, with indices of the developed countries clearly outperforming their emerging peers, the US reaching a new record and Europe leading markets higher.
On Wednesday, Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan passed the final vote at the US House of Representatives.
Tuesday was interesting on global markets, with what we could call a “rotation of the rotation”.
Volatility was the name of the game last week, as a stream of good fundamental news pushed interest rates and inflations expectations higher, sending shockwaves across markets.
Bad fundamental news are not what markets dislike the most: uncertainty is. Last week was another example of this well-known behavioural lesson.
After a strong performance from Asia markets yesterday, with China and Hong Kong equity indices up over 2%, this morning major markets in Asia are trading down following the US close yesterday.
Asian markets are up this morning, with China and Hong Kong in the lead after falling around a percent yesterday, in line with global equities which were down half a percent.
This morning Asian equities are slightly negative, after a broad risk on day for markets globally yesterday with global equities up 2%, almost wiping out last week’s 3% fall.
After a week of yield driven market movements, with global equities losing 3% and 10 year Treasury yields rising mid-week to 1.51%, Monday has begun with a stabilization in sovereign bonds, a lower US dollar, signaling somewhat calmer markets with equity indices in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong trading up over a percent.
An intense week of equity volatility with markets yo-yoing between gains and losses.
Nobody really knows whether inflation will rise, but there is no ambiguity that the Fed will remain very accommodative for long.
Tuesday started with some volatility but ended quietly when market participants found comfort in the two awaited items of the day: Jerome Powell’s speech and the US consumer confidence.
Fundamental news are good, combining slowing infections, rising vaccinations, resilient economies and increased policy support.
The key market move of last week was a rise in interest rates, as signs converged for a steady economic recovery from Q2.
The key news of last week converged to set the stage for a strong recovery in the quarters ahead.
The quick rise in global Treasury yields did not go down well with markets and stocks saw one more mixed-to-weak session.
Yesterday was quite eventful, not so much for equities, which closed mixed to little changed depending on geographies and markets, as for bonds.
Stocks closed on a stronger note across the EM countries, in Europe and in Japan, alongside US futures pushing to new highs on occasion of the Presidents Day holiday.
Asian stocks are advancing, alongside US futures ticking higher on this President’s Day holiday, which sees the cash markets closed in the United States.
Stocks closed at new all-time highs both in the United States and in the emerging markets, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 1.2% and 1.7% and the MSCI Emerging Market Index 2.3% for the week respectively.
Let’s start with the key number released yesterday: +1.4%. This is the US Consumer Price Index year-on-year change as of January, which is of course the main gauge of inflation.
Let’s start with history: yesterday, Hope Probe successfully entered the orbit of Mars at 7.42 PM Dubai time.
As we wrote yesterday, last week was very positive for risk assets, lifting several equity indices to record highs and interest rates at a 2021 high.
January ended with a very negative week, combining surging Covid-19 infections, delays on US fiscal stimulus and the largest de-risking from hedge funds in a decade, under attack by retail investors on the dubbed “meme stocks”.
A strong February so far with most global indices back in the green and global equities up 2.6% year to date.
Another positive day for global equities with a strong risk on rally.
February has on its first trading day seen a global equity rally with lower volatility and technology once again taking leadership.
A volatile week for global equities which ended up 3.5% lower, ending January down by half a percent.
Global financial markets struggled to find a clear direction on Monday, integrating the risk of the US fiscal relief package to be delayed.
Last week was positive across financial markets: all the major asset classes delivered positive returns.
The Asian markets have been rising for a third straight session this morning, led by Japan and South Korea as global growth expectations are positively affected by more forthcoming US stimulus.
In the morning session stocks are mixed in Asia, with Australia headed higher and Japan in losing territory, while US futures are struggling for direction.
In the Asian morning session stocks are steady, with the Nikkei225 leading gains.
In the Asian morning session stocks are generally weaker alongside US futures, in spite of data from China pointing to a continuation of the strong recovery, with the economy back to the pre-pandemic growth rate in the fourth quarter.
Wednesday was relatively quiet on financial markets. Global stocks were little changed in developed regions and slightly down in their emerging peers
Financial markets are looking for a direction, hesitating between strong short-term headwinds and brighter medium term prospects
After a strong first week of 2021, Monday’s session on global markets was negative on pretty much everything.
The Democratic party gaining control of both houses of the US congress was the key reason behind last week’s rise in cyclical assets, with a heightened probability of more fiscal stimulus.
The first week of 2021 was eventful and volatile, but positive for cyclical assets.
Global equities gained close to half a percent yesterday with most major markets up. Major news affecting markets include Democratic control of the US Senate, the 10 year Treasury yield over 1%, oil continuing to gain and Coronavirus spread leading to continued lockdowns.
Global markets saw a broad rally yesterday with most sectors and regions up, barring the Eurozone.
The first day of trade in 2021 for most global markets saw mixed performance from Developed Market equities with U.S. indices lower, though ending off session lows, Eurozone equities positive and the UK rallying.
The first markets to start trading in 2021 are the GCC, with the first trading day yesterday
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